* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 44 47 54 54 54 51 49 45 40 37 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 44 47 54 54 54 51 49 45 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 38 37 37 42 46 47 46 42 37 30 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 2 2 5 9 8 11 14 13 9 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 -1 -5 1 -1 0 -1 4 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 237 239 230 162 175 130 130 108 107 108 118 155 206 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.2 24.5 21.6 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 136 137 136 133 132 128 126 109 80 63 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 7 6 2 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 51 51 49 50 51 48 50 49 55 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 14 14 14 13 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -41 -41 -45 -53 -57 -97 -105 -132 -141 -152 -145 -88 200 MB DIV 11 5 27 21 12 15 -70 -62 -10 19 63 98 183 700-850 TADV 13 10 -1 0 10 4 12 0 8 0 8 -3 19 LAND (KM) 2036 3417 3285 3162 3043 2808 2534 2235 1967 1749 1604 1324 1056 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.3 28.4 29.7 31.1 32.6 34.6 37.2 40.2 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 179.5 181.0 182.5 184.0 185.6 188.6 191.5 194.2 196.4 197.4 197.1 196.1 194.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 11 12 14 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 20 18 16 16 14 13 9 6 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 2. 9. 9. 9. 6. 4. -0. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.1 179.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.25 -0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 411.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 24.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##