* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 52 52 53 57 59 59 53 52 50 46 40 V (KT) LAND 55 52 52 52 53 57 59 59 53 52 50 46 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 48 48 51 53 52 48 44 38 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 2 5 9 8 8 12 11 11 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 3 -1 -2 1 0 0 0 5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 226 231 231 154 172 134 149 130 104 109 143 161 187 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.7 24.2 23.0 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 131 129 129 125 122 115 110 105 93 63 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 1 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 52 52 54 52 51 50 53 53 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 13 13 13 14 14 12 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -33 -41 -40 -44 -65 -74 -100 -132 -144 -126 -85 -33 200 MB DIV 8 9 8 32 24 2 -31 -77 -49 18 66 84 200 700-850 TADV 11 11 7 1 4 3 8 3 3 1 -3 5 -23 LAND (KM) 1880 2038 3397 3265 3135 2894 2667 2359 2060 1820 1638 1500 1205 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.0 28.1 29.0 30.4 32.2 34.0 35.8 38.1 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 178.0 179.5 181.0 182.6 184.2 187.2 190.4 193.2 195.5 197.0 197.8 197.7 196.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 10 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 13 13 12 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -4. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 4. 4. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.7 178.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 480.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.0% 15.5% 12.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##