* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 52 51 52 56 60 60 56 52 51 48 44 V (KT) LAND 60 55 52 51 52 56 60 60 56 52 51 48 44 V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 49 49 50 53 53 50 46 41 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 10 7 5 6 15 13 14 16 13 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 -1 0 0 -5 1 -4 1 -1 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 227 226 233 220 195 171 143 150 127 143 136 159 171 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.6 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 130 129 128 126 122 118 112 107 99 76 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 3 700-500 MB RH 49 49 51 54 54 55 53 52 52 51 53 53 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 16 15 14 14 16 16 14 13 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -29 -37 -43 -44 -52 -51 -86 -109 -136 -129 -97 -48 200 MB DIV -2 3 2 3 24 21 -2 -80 -69 -11 24 51 121 700-850 TADV 17 9 8 9 8 2 5 6 0 1 -1 10 -3 LAND (KM) 1704 1860 2018 3351 3225 3001 2742 2475 2184 1922 1707 1536 1340 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 31.4 33.0 35.1 37.2 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 176.3 177.8 179.2 180.9 182.5 185.4 188.7 191.9 194.6 196.6 197.5 198.0 197.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 16 14 12 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 5 10 10 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. -5. -7. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -9. -8. -4. -0. 0. -4. -8. -9. -12. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.2 176.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.33 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 497.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 12.3% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##