* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 51 48 49 52 60 62 62 59 57 56 55 V (KT) LAND 65 57 51 48 49 52 60 62 62 59 57 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 65 58 53 49 47 47 51 54 53 48 42 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 16 14 15 8 3 6 13 14 19 13 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 0 0 -1 0 2 0 3 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 228 227 222 229 240 189 141 133 132 128 138 136 151 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 134 132 130 130 131 126 124 119 113 111 101 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 8 5 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 55 54 57 54 54 51 53 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 15 15 16 14 16 16 16 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -11 -24 -31 -35 -40 -47 -60 -86 -108 -110 -99 -77 200 MB DIV 7 4 6 1 0 30 19 -44 -71 -28 1 19 90 700-850 TADV 26 14 11 12 8 2 8 5 2 2 3 -1 7 LAND (KM) 1565 1702 1841 1999 3417 3183 2951 2704 2391 2108 1860 1635 1465 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.1 24.8 25.4 25.9 26.8 27.7 28.8 30.0 31.4 33.0 35.0 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 175.0 176.3 177.6 179.1 180.6 183.6 186.8 190.1 193.2 195.7 197.5 198.6 198.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 15 15 15 14 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 10 8 12 11 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -16. -13. -5. -3. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.3 175.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 500.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##