* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 59 56 55 58 60 64 65 62 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 75 66 59 56 55 58 60 64 65 62 62 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 75 67 62 58 56 54 56 57 56 54 50 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 21 14 11 9 1 1 9 10 12 10 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 4 3 3 -2 0 -2 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 219 228 237 233 240 17 87 127 158 129 126 135 115 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 137 135 133 129 130 129 126 122 117 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 48 51 51 51 54 56 56 54 54 53 49 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 17 17 16 16 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 3 -9 -20 -20 -29 -35 -39 -69 -87 -109 -122 -93 200 MB DIV -10 3 5 9 20 30 10 35 -81 -91 -54 -7 7 700-850 TADV 27 20 13 6 4 5 0 6 5 -2 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1420 1544 1672 1820 1968 3323 3113 2883 2617 2325 2077 1858 1693 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.3 24.1 24.7 25.3 26.3 27.0 27.9 29.0 30.3 31.7 33.3 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 173.6 174.8 176.0 177.4 178.8 181.7 184.7 188.0 191.1 193.8 195.8 197.2 197.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 10 8 12 13 6 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -4. -4. -0. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -19. -20. -17. -15. -11. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.4 173.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 -0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 579.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 4.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##