* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 82 78 75 75 76 75 73 69 68 67 72 V (KT) LAND 95 89 82 78 75 75 76 75 73 69 68 67 72 V (KT) LGEM 95 90 84 78 74 68 66 67 68 65 62 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 26 28 20 12 7 1 1 4 5 8 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 4 5 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 191 203 220 228 236 250 306 28 91 109 157 145 230 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.7 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 141 138 133 130 129 129 125 122 114 108 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 52 51 53 53 53 55 53 52 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 19 17 16 16 16 17 16 17 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 16 11 -5 -25 -35 -44 -42 -71 -80 -104 -107 200 MB DIV 42 -4 -33 0 5 -3 13 1 18 -56 -43 -4 43 700-850 TADV 10 12 18 8 7 7 2 -2 0 1 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1197 1300 1410 1544 1682 1975 3328 3084 2880 2630 2288 1951 1645 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.2 24.0 25.1 26.1 27.2 28.0 29.1 30.6 32.8 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 171.3 172.4 173.5 174.8 176.1 178.9 182.0 184.9 187.8 190.8 194.0 196.4 197.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 14 14 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 12 10 7 8 15 13 9 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -20. -25. -29. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -11. -8. -4. -0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -17. -20. -20. -19. -20. -22. -26. -27. -28. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.8 171.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 758.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##