* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 83 78 75 73 74 76 79 78 75 73 75 V (KT) LAND 95 89 83 78 75 73 74 76 79 78 75 73 75 V (KT) LGEM 95 90 85 80 75 68 65 66 70 72 71 67 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 26 27 20 8 7 1 2 5 8 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 1 2 3 5 -2 0 -5 -5 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 210 196 201 215 227 206 259 172 29 113 118 138 150 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 145 143 142 136 132 131 131 127 124 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 47 48 51 52 52 53 52 54 52 52 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 20 19 19 18 19 20 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 47 33 29 25 19 -9 -20 -28 -37 -52 -75 -91 -91 200 MB DIV 54 37 -5 -21 2 11 5 22 7 -5 -44 -18 10 700-850 TADV 3 9 14 15 10 11 6 -3 1 -2 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1130 1222 1323 1446 1574 1847 3491 3258 3019 2781 2484 2192 1908 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.0 24.4 25.2 26.1 27.2 28.4 29.7 31.2 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 170.4 171.5 172.6 173.8 175.1 177.7 180.5 183.5 186.4 189.3 192.2 194.7 196.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 14 13 13 11 8 18 15 13 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -24. -28. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -11. -9. -6. -2. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -20. -22. -21. -19. -15. -17. -20. -22. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.7 170.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 707.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##