* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 87 79 75 69 66 69 70 67 66 65 61 V (KT) LAND 105 96 87 79 75 69 66 69 70 67 66 65 61 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 91 86 81 71 63 59 59 60 59 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 24 29 27 19 17 10 8 14 11 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 3 6 6 7 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 212 203 198 200 212 216 215 192 169 135 148 121 152 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 145 143 138 132 128 128 126 122 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 50 52 52 54 53 52 52 49 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 18 20 19 17 17 16 15 15 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 35 30 31 2 -27 -37 -46 -49 -68 -96 -106 200 MB DIV 47 43 35 9 -2 12 -3 17 5 10 -60 -60 -41 700-850 TADV 5 0 7 6 14 7 8 0 -1 0 5 1 6 LAND (KM) 1083 1162 1252 1353 1461 1722 2035 3225 3005 2810 2617 2327 2000 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.4 24.0 25.8 27.0 27.8 28.6 29.6 31.1 33.1 LONG(DEG W) 169.7 170.8 171.8 172.9 174.0 176.5 179.4 182.3 185.3 188.0 190.4 192.9 195.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 14 14 13 7 5 12 6 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -18. -26. -33. -38. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -17. -18. -16. -11. -7. -6. -5. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -26. -30. -36. -39. -36. -35. -38. -39. -40. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.0 169.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 782.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##