* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 88 83 78 75 74 77 81 78 77 75 74 V (KT) LAND 105 96 88 83 78 75 74 77 81 78 77 75 74 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 92 87 83 76 70 68 70 73 73 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 19 21 20 25 18 10 2 3 9 9 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 6 5 4 7 3 -3 -5 -5 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 219 212 215 200 201 218 227 279 163 148 172 140 152 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 145 143 139 133 128 127 125 120 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 47 49 48 48 51 51 52 53 51 45 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 18 18 19 17 16 18 17 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 44 36 35 28 29 12 -20 -35 -50 -62 -77 -98 -138 200 MB DIV 70 41 21 24 16 20 0 5 11 -12 2 -58 -31 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 7 6 4 3 -2 -3 -4 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 1006 1065 1134 1223 1321 1526 1788 2098 3121 2886 2661 2447 2246 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.6 23.6 25.3 26.6 27.8 28.9 30.1 31.2 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 168.7 169.6 170.5 171.5 172.6 174.6 177.0 179.9 182.8 185.5 187.9 190.5 192.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 20 14 11 7 6 4 8 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -18. -26. -33. -38. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -10. -5. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -5. -6. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -22. -27. -30. -31. -28. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.5 168.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 821.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##