* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 115 112 107 95 87 81 80 79 75 72 66 V (KT) LAND 120 119 115 112 107 95 87 81 80 79 75 72 66 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 115 110 106 95 84 74 68 67 67 64 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 19 23 30 30 25 10 12 10 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 5 7 4 -2 0 -2 -3 -6 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 219 214 207 211 212 205 215 209 210 192 162 197 22 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.6 24.9 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 144 145 143 138 130 125 121 113 107 106 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 46 47 47 48 53 51 52 54 55 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 22 20 21 20 19 20 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 44 41 39 29 11 -17 -36 -53 -45 -34 -60 200 MB DIV 93 76 78 70 39 43 25 2 15 13 12 -11 -8 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 3 0 11 13 10 10 1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 850 918 1000 1079 1165 1338 1572 1841 2123 2984 2681 2453 2285 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.3 22.1 24.2 26.0 27.7 29.4 31.3 32.8 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 166.6 167.8 168.9 169.9 170.9 172.8 175.0 177.4 179.9 182.4 184.8 186.5 187.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 12 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 29 21 22 18 9 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -17. -27. -36. -45. -52. -57. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -12. -17. -19. -16. -11. -7. -6. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -8. -13. -25. -33. -39. -40. -41. -45. -48. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.8 166.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 929.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##