* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 109 107 102 94 86 81 77 75 69 66 62 V (KT) LAND 115 113 109 107 102 94 86 81 77 75 69 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 110 106 102 95 86 75 66 61 57 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 15 16 20 22 30 18 12 11 14 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 2 7 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 248 230 207 210 219 203 201 202 185 160 171 197 341 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.7 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 142 144 145 139 131 125 119 111 105 103 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 48 48 47 47 48 50 50 47 50 52 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 21 21 21 22 20 19 20 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 52 46 42 34 22 -6 -43 -52 -65 -41 -57 200 MB DIV 77 86 91 94 92 43 22 -1 2 27 4 6 -40 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 5 13 18 10 17 6 6 3 -1 LAND (KM) 746 831 934 995 1062 1240 1496 1746 2015 3017 2686 2477 2357 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 21.4 23.7 25.7 27.6 29.6 31.7 33.1 34.1 LONG(DEG W) 165.2 166.6 168.0 168.9 169.7 171.8 174.3 176.5 178.8 181.3 183.9 185.4 185.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 9 11 15 15 14 14 15 12 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 35 25 21 22 11 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -23. -32. -40. -47. -52. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -12. -8. -5. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. 1. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -8. -13. -21. -29. -34. -38. -40. -46. -49. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.6 165.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 876.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##