* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 110 108 104 94 84 77 72 67 63 56 49 V (KT) LAND 115 114 110 108 104 94 84 77 72 67 63 56 49 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 111 108 104 97 88 78 66 56 49 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 9 12 13 27 34 35 27 21 22 16 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -1 0 3 3 0 5 1 3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 244 215 193 200 220 206 203 195 178 152 149 113 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.7 24.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 142 143 145 141 135 130 125 122 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 48 46 48 51 55 54 54 55 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 19 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 67 65 54 59 50 38 28 15 -6 -29 -48 -41 -33 200 MB DIV 52 69 79 91 93 64 33 3 12 7 20 2 -14 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -2 0 8 15 16 19 18 16 8 2 LAND (KM) 669 743 840 915 1000 1157 1390 1641 1894 3248 2934 2666 2453 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 20.7 23.0 24.8 26.2 27.7 29.5 31.3 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 163.7 165.2 166.7 167.8 168.9 170.9 173.3 175.6 177.9 180.4 183.2 185.1 186.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 12 12 14 15 13 13 14 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 25 37 24 20 19 10 5 3 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -15. -23. -32. -40. -46. -50. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -7. -11. -21. -31. -38. -43. -48. -52. -59. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.2 163.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 862.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##