* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 105 104 104 99 92 84 79 74 72 64 58 V (KT) LAND 110 108 105 104 104 99 92 84 79 74 72 64 58 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 105 102 100 97 93 84 74 65 58 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 7 9 15 21 32 21 18 16 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 2 7 -1 7 2 8 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 290 269 254 220 201 222 203 213 204 192 169 159 153 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 142 142 144 144 140 135 131 127 121 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 49 48 46 50 52 53 52 53 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 21 22 23 23 22 21 20 20 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 55 77 65 64 64 53 44 27 10 -11 -28 -57 -59 200 MB DIV 39 44 48 58 79 95 53 28 22 7 40 4 9 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 9 16 22 10 26 16 14 0 LAND (KM) 613 668 746 818 906 1075 1253 1462 1718 2012 3150 2823 2527 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.5 21.2 23.0 24.6 26.2 27.8 29.9 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 162.4 163.8 165.1 166.3 167.6 169.8 171.9 174.0 176.4 179.1 182.2 184.7 186.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 12 13 13 14 15 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 26 35 30 23 16 9 6 3 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -28. -34. -40. -44. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -6. -4. -4. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -6. -11. -18. -26. -31. -36. -38. -46. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 17.0 162.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 818.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##