* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 102 101 98 99 96 90 83 80 78 77 75 V (KT) LAND 105 104 102 101 98 99 96 90 83 80 78 77 75 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 102 99 97 96 95 90 81 72 66 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 10 4 9 16 17 23 18 14 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 5 11 5 9 6 9 0 SHEAR DIR 282 298 233 241 240 184 230 208 226 221 221 178 164 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.4 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 141 141 143 145 145 143 137 130 127 123 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 44 46 48 47 49 49 49 50 56 54 54 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 20 19 21 23 22 20 20 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 45 57 72 67 64 60 57 51 34 13 -12 -21 -40 200 MB DIV 7 43 50 45 54 83 38 50 35 6 8 23 -7 700-850 TADV -10 -2 0 0 -5 2 17 9 13 18 21 15 14 LAND (KM) 569 611 678 746 828 1015 1193 1370 1584 1835 3403 3116 2834 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.5 19.6 20.9 22.5 24.2 26.1 27.8 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 160.8 162.3 163.7 165.0 166.2 168.8 171.0 173.0 175.2 177.6 180.5 182.9 185.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 14 15 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 33 27 39 25 22 17 8 6 12 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -24. -30. -35. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 4. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -7. -6. -9. -15. -22. -25. -27. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.8 160.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 791.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 27 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##