* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 102 102 100 95 92 85 81 74 74 73 V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 102 102 100 95 92 85 81 74 74 73 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 101 99 97 96 95 94 90 82 73 68 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 4 5 7 11 18 18 21 19 19 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -1 -5 -5 1 0 5 6 4 6 0 SHEAR DIR 273 283 290 193 217 162 198 206 222 214 217 177 158 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 139 141 142 144 145 146 141 134 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 47 46 47 47 47 50 53 56 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 19 20 20 22 21 21 18 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 35 54 66 72 68 73 73 63 43 19 -2 -17 -28 200 MB DIV 19 4 43 53 55 93 78 34 18 10 -3 40 26 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -4 -3 -1 -6 7 9 5 15 22 16 18 LAND (KM) 454 572 614 670 746 933 1106 1284 1489 1738 2036 3274 3048 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.9 18.9 20.0 21.3 23.0 25.1 26.8 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 159.3 160.8 162.2 163.5 164.8 167.6 169.9 172.0 174.2 176.7 179.5 181.7 183.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 15 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 30 33 29 43 29 17 10 6 4 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -18. -25. -30. -35. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 5. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -10. -13. -20. -24. -31. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.6 159.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 60.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 831.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 33 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##