* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 94 92 90 91 86 84 78 73 71 71 V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 94 92 90 91 86 84 78 73 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 94 92 90 87 88 90 89 82 74 66 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 6 6 6 11 16 20 28 35 31 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -5 0 1 8 6 4 0 7 SHEAR DIR 256 273 288 257 214 216 201 219 204 227 228 227 203 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 138 139 142 144 145 145 142 138 132 130 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 50 60 60 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 19 21 21 23 22 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 57 66 80 71 78 63 53 38 25 14 6 200 MB DIV 16 14 5 33 37 53 99 46 51 31 26 -5 34 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -4 1 -1 -5 2 7 9 18 25 22 20 LAND (KM) 336 430 549 601 662 820 1020 1241 1442 1667 1903 3477 3187 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.2 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 157.7 159.1 160.5 161.9 163.3 166.1 168.9 171.5 173.7 176.0 178.3 180.8 183.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 28 29 33 37 27 20 11 9 6 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -9. -14. -16. -22. -26. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.6 157.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 60.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 829.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##