* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 91 88 90 89 91 90 85 83 80 79 81 V (KT) LAND 100 95 91 88 90 89 91 90 85 83 80 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 91 88 86 84 85 89 91 89 84 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 14 9 4 3 3 13 15 18 16 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -1 1 0 -3 -1 2 3 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 262 248 260 275 314 284 203 210 200 201 214 248 277 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 136 137 141 142 144 146 145 139 134 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 44 42 44 45 45 45 47 46 47 50 53 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 19 17 19 21 20 22 22 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 43 56 64 77 74 69 44 32 21 2 -10 200 MB DIV 0 13 30 23 49 54 58 41 22 19 35 7 43 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -8 -6 -4 -2 -3 4 8 6 8 7 2 LAND (KM) 260 323 422 540 597 724 888 1090 1309 1546 1780 1990 3432 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.8 20.3 21.9 23.4 24.6 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 156.1 157.6 159.0 160.4 161.8 164.6 167.1 169.7 172.3 174.8 177.1 179.1 180.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 19 24 28 28 28 46 29 15 9 5 5 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -27. -31. -34. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -3. 0. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 2. 3. 6. 6. 8. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -10. -11. -9. -10. -15. -17. -20. -21. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.6 156.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 46.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 844.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##