* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 86 84 80 84 86 90 89 83 83 81 82 V (KT) LAND 100 93 86 84 80 84 86 90 89 83 83 81 82 V (KT) LGEM 100 93 88 84 83 81 83 90 97 97 92 87 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 12 10 8 3 3 4 11 11 12 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -5 -3 0 -1 -6 0 0 7 8 10 7 SHEAR DIR 267 268 247 261 268 318 28 166 205 200 222 233 299 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 134 136 140 141 142 145 147 145 142 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 43 43 41 41 42 43 44 45 49 49 54 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 15 16 18 17 20 20 23 24 22 24 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 26 34 38 47 63 85 70 76 68 55 34 17 6 200 MB DIV 1 6 3 25 33 59 38 57 16 41 15 -3 12 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -4 -6 -1 0 1 10 3 4 6 1 LAND (KM) 286 267 336 438 564 674 857 1044 1235 1450 1707 1924 3641 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.9 19.9 21.2 22.4 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 154.6 156.2 157.7 159.2 160.6 163.5 166.3 168.8 171.2 173.6 176.3 178.5 180.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 12 12 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 18 24 27 34 43 41 25 11 15 10 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -0. -1. 2. 2. 6. 7. 5. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -16. -20. -16. -14. -10. -11. -17. -17. -19. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.5 154.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 878.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##