* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 97 91 88 85 84 83 85 82 77 79 80 V (KT) LAND 110 104 97 91 88 85 84 83 85 82 77 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 110 103 97 92 88 84 83 86 92 95 93 88 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 2 4 1 8 9 10 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -5 -4 -1 2 -4 -4 0 2 6 9 4 SHEAR DIR 260 254 246 230 246 278 289 92 213 199 218 236 253 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 135 134 138 142 142 144 145 146 144 141 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 42 40 42 43 42 47 47 48 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 16 19 19 19 19 23 23 21 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 23 31 37 44 49 76 81 72 84 71 48 29 9 200 MB DIV 0 5 6 17 46 48 55 37 37 19 12 22 4 700-850 TADV 4 4 1 -2 -7 -4 0 4 8 17 9 7 4 LAND (KM) 376 285 260 333 446 609 762 968 1174 1357 1541 1783 3745 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 18.2 19.2 20.5 21.8 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 153.2 154.7 156.1 157.7 159.2 162.1 165.0 167.8 170.3 172.5 174.6 177.1 180.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 13 14 13 12 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 18 18 25 30 30 49 41 15 10 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -44. -45. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 2. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 6. 6. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -22. -25. -26. -27. -25. -28. -33. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.4 153.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 980.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##