* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 105 99 94 87 86 83 86 82 77 74 74 V (KT) LAND 115 111 105 99 94 87 86 83 86 82 77 74 74 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 103 96 91 85 83 84 90 93 90 84 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 6 10 6 4 4 5 11 15 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 -1 -2 1 0 -7 -1 2 9 6 8 SHEAR DIR 278 251 253 234 229 242 195 241 188 225 197 217 227 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 133 134 137 140 141 143 145 146 145 143 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 8 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 42 41 41 42 43 46 50 53 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 19 19 20 21 21 25 25 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 12 20 26 32 43 63 81 64 82 79 67 49 29 200 MB DIV -1 1 1 9 22 35 52 36 53 24 59 18 6 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -4 -7 -3 -1 3 11 11 7 11 LAND (KM) 474 363 256 233 303 530 654 845 1067 1279 1479 1699 1936 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.8 20.0 21.0 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 151.6 153.1 154.6 156.1 157.6 160.6 163.6 166.4 169.1 171.6 173.9 176.2 178.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 6 9 19 23 30 33 43 38 18 11 19 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -20. -27. -35. -41. -46. -49. -50. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 7. 7. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -16. -21. -28. -29. -32. -29. -33. -38. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.5 151.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1035.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##