* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 105 97 92 82 80 81 78 77 74 73 74 V (KT) LAND 115 110 105 97 92 82 80 81 78 77 74 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 103 96 90 83 81 81 83 87 89 88 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 6 6 8 10 4 4 3 10 9 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 -2 -1 2 -2 -6 -1 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 277 264 286 278 227 248 244 289 265 216 202 201 204 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 132 133 133 134 139 142 143 144 145 146 144 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 44 44 43 44 48 48 51 53 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 17 17 17 18 21 20 22 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 3 18 19 28 35 40 66 74 73 77 68 50 34 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -1 -3 5 52 36 49 62 29 11 33 23 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 0 0 -5 -4 0 1 5 10 6 11 LAND (KM) 607 474 367 273 248 407 595 746 966 1181 1384 1574 1784 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.4 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 150.0 151.5 153.1 154.5 156.0 158.9 162.0 164.9 167.9 170.5 172.8 174.9 177.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 6 9 17 24 29 27 42 30 13 13 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -9. -12. -20. -28. -35. -42. -46. -49. -51. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -1. 2. 1. 4. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -18. -23. -33. -35. -34. -37. -38. -41. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.5 150.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 976.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/08/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 28 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##