* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 102 97 92 85 85 84 80 81 79 79 78 V (KT) LAND 115 107 102 97 92 85 85 84 80 81 79 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 115 106 99 93 88 81 79 81 84 88 93 95 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 6 9 7 2 2 5 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 0 -5 -1 -1 -5 -2 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 293 279 245 265 253 218 233 240 301 219 206 184 220 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 132 133 134 137 140 141 143 145 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -51.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 44 45 42 43 42 41 38 40 42 45 50 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 19 19 19 18 20 21 20 23 24 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 27 26 33 47 60 80 71 74 77 75 57 200 MB DIV -33 11 -3 -3 4 35 29 32 38 53 30 44 -1 700-850 TADV -9 -3 1 4 2 0 -4 -1 1 1 5 12 8 LAND (KM) 755 616 490 383 280 324 578 696 875 1087 1296 1491 1672 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 148.5 150.0 151.5 153.0 154.5 157.5 160.7 163.7 166.6 169.3 171.7 173.9 175.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 7 9 21 25 34 46 39 18 12 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 0. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -23. -30. -30. -31. -35. -34. -36. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 148.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 968.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##