* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 108 104 100 97 91 88 85 85 80 80 76 79 V (KT) LAND 115 108 104 100 97 91 88 85 85 80 80 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 115 106 98 93 88 82 80 82 85 89 93 93 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 3 6 4 7 3 7 5 4 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 2 0 -3 -1 0 -4 0 5 2 6 SHEAR DIR 1 356 307 186 224 224 233 210 315 312 221 224 229 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 131 132 134 135 139 142 142 144 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 45 46 43 40 39 42 43 49 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 21 20 20 19 20 20 22 22 25 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 29 12 7 23 22 43 52 72 78 76 79 73 61 200 MB DIV -13 -25 7 1 8 23 44 35 4 -2 -8 31 55 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -5 2 5 3 -5 -2 1 3 0 4 4 LAND (KM) 902 754 611 494 398 271 437 624 800 999 1201 1374 1522 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.5 19.3 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 147.1 148.6 150.1 151.5 152.9 156.1 159.1 162.2 165.4 168.2 170.7 172.7 174.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 7 17 23 29 30 41 28 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -51. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -1. -1. 2. 1. 5. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -15. -18. -24. -27. -30. -30. -35. -35. -39. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.0 147.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 903.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 81 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##