* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 118 112 107 97 88 86 88 82 79 77 77 V (KT) LAND 130 124 118 112 107 97 88 86 88 82 79 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 130 123 115 108 103 93 86 85 86 87 89 90 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 2 6 4 6 1 1 3 3 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 4 7 4 2 -4 1 0 -2 3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 59 37 329 120 154 194 202 257 163 238 238 226 203 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 130 131 133 133 137 140 141 142 144 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 46 44 43 41 40 41 43 48 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 21 21 21 21 19 20 24 23 23 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 40 27 8 7 20 33 46 61 76 70 62 67 72 200 MB DIV 15 -2 -22 1 2 -10 10 23 31 0 0 22 57 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -12 -5 3 5 -1 -3 2 3 -1 3 10 LAND (KM) 1062 922 784 643 513 300 306 527 692 886 1095 1294 1480 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 145.6 147.0 148.3 149.8 151.3 154.3 157.2 160.2 163.5 166.4 169.0 171.4 173.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 4 4 4 11 20 25 34 38 44 32 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -19. -30. -40. -49. -56. -62. -66. -67. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -33. -42. -44. -42. -48. -51. -53. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.7 145.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1009.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 96 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##