* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 133 129 121 115 103 92 85 82 77 75 71 72 V (KT) LAND 135 133 129 121 115 103 92 85 82 77 75 71 72 V (KT) LGEM 135 131 124 116 108 97 88 84 83 84 86 87 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 3 1 3 5 6 1 5 3 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 2 5 6 5 0 -1 4 -3 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 58 55 2 256 146 152 208 222 107 292 296 237 215 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 130 130 133 134 136 139 141 142 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 52 49 49 45 43 41 38 35 33 35 36 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 19 20 20 19 20 21 21 23 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 41 24 18 38 43 61 83 86 78 82 82 200 MB DIV 29 14 -15 -30 -5 7 6 -10 15 -8 1 7 41 700-850 TADV -3 -10 -16 -13 -7 1 2 -6 0 0 0 -5 4 LAND (KM) 1227 1074 922 777 637 391 248 432 618 784 998 1197 1373 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 145.5 146.9 148.4 149.8 152.7 156.0 159.2 162.3 165.2 168.0 170.4 172.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 8 4 4 8 17 23 28 27 43 42 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -10. -16. -22. -33. -44. -54. -61. -67. -71. -72. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -14. -20. -32. -43. -50. -53. -58. -60. -64. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.5 144.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1061.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/07/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##