* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 132 125 117 105 95 88 83 83 77 75 75 V (KT) LAND 135 135 132 125 117 105 95 88 83 83 77 75 75 V (KT) LGEM 135 132 125 118 111 101 93 87 86 89 93 94 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 3 4 3 3 2 3 4 5 7 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 0 0 2 4 4 -1 0 0 -5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 32 106 86 358 336 132 262 131 29 17 310 173 221 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 132 131 132 134 133 137 140 141 142 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.2 -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 49 47 44 40 36 34 37 35 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 22 21 22 22 20 20 24 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 45 55 53 43 29 37 52 63 80 91 78 77 82 200 MB DIV 13 28 6 -15 -10 31 -6 11 -6 16 -8 -6 31 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -7 -12 -9 1 4 1 -6 -2 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1403 1251 1101 946 793 513 285 324 569 705 882 1097 1304 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 142.4 143.8 145.2 146.7 148.2 151.2 154.4 157.5 160.6 163.7 166.6 169.2 171.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 15 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 11 10 5 3 13 19 24 33 44 40 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -21. -33. -44. -54. -61. -67. -71. -73. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. -0. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -10. -18. -29. -40. -47. -52. -52. -58. -60. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 15.1 142.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -2.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 992.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 4.6% 3.1% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 46 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##