* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 122 120 116 107 102 93 86 83 77 77 75 V (KT) LAND 125 124 122 120 116 107 102 93 86 83 77 77 75 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 116 111 106 99 96 90 86 86 89 93 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 2 3 3 1 3 7 12 11 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 1 1 5 4 0 0 -6 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 25 51 80 70 13 121 90 229 8 20 30 59 214 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 133 132 131 133 134 136 138 142 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 48 52 49 48 42 40 35 33 34 36 37 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 22 21 23 21 20 23 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR 37 46 53 51 39 25 45 57 76 91 86 81 93 200 MB DIV 11 17 20 -2 -13 18 2 3 -15 1 -20 7 29 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -8 -9 -11 -5 0 4 -5 -4 -2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1521 1376 1232 1078 927 604 344 262 479 652 815 1022 1249 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 141.3 142.7 144.0 145.5 146.9 150.1 153.3 156.5 159.6 162.6 165.5 168.2 170.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 8 11 9 3 10 20 22 29 28 38 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -36. -45. -52. -58. -61. -62. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 1. -0. 3. 3. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -23. -32. -39. -42. -48. -48. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.9 141.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 886.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##