* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 109 107 99 94 87 80 75 74 72 73 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 109 107 99 94 87 80 75 74 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 120 116 110 105 101 96 93 89 84 84 88 93 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 6 6 3 4 1 4 2 9 5 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 4 6 0 -2 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 13 17 40 71 40 4 103 281 336 5 37 11 264 SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 132 131 132 130 132 132 134 139 142 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 54 50 49 47 46 42 38 35 35 33 34 36 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 24 23 23 23 23 23 21 20 23 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 47 52 49 25 48 53 65 82 82 76 83 200 MB DIV -12 -1 11 14 -3 0 8 -3 -6 0 -27 -12 6 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -8 -8 -9 -10 -2 4 2 -7 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1666 1499 1333 1178 1024 721 391 202 329 563 718 918 1096 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 141.4 142.9 144.4 145.8 148.8 152.3 155.3 158.1 161.1 164.3 167.1 169.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 14 14 16 15 14 14 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 12 16 6 7 11 19 27 27 46 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -33. -41. -48. -53. -56. -58. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -13. -21. -26. -33. -40. -45. -46. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.8 139.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 892.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 37 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##