* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 117 114 107 100 92 85 78 75 72 71 70 V (KT) LAND 120 120 117 114 107 100 92 85 78 75 72 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 113 108 103 96 92 88 85 84 85 87 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 2 2 7 2 1 1 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 2 2 0 1 0 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 12 19 45 65 82 347 116 177 177 117 337 329 325 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.3 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 135 134 130 134 132 128 136 134 136 138 141 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 53 53 50 49 45 42 40 37 35 35 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 22 20 21 20 21 20 20 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 42 49 50 38 26 49 49 62 63 62 67 200 MB DIV -3 -22 -7 8 5 -16 27 18 30 -6 -12 -14 22 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 0 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1809 1673 1537 1388 1239 922 601 355 248 407 552 701 921 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.8 17.3 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.6 139.9 141.1 142.5 143.8 146.8 150.0 153.0 156.0 158.9 161.7 164.6 167.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 13 14 11 6 9 16 20 30 23 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -36. -44. -50. -54. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -3. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -13. -19. -28. -35. -42. -45. -48. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.5 138.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 827.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/06/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 83 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX