* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 108 104 101 95 88 85 76 72 70 70 70 V (KT) LAND 115 112 108 104 101 95 88 85 76 72 70 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 107 102 98 92 91 89 85 81 78 79 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 3 3 6 4 5 5 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -6 -3 0 -2 2 2 3 0 0 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 350 24 15 40 67 84 5 152 208 201 323 344 301 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.7 26.3 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 134 135 134 130 133 128 133 132 135 135 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 53 53 51 47 41 39 38 37 38 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 21 22 21 20 21 18 18 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 44 42 48 51 26 38 49 57 67 72 62 200 MB DIV -13 -6 -25 -6 9 -4 -2 16 17 21 -20 -1 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 0 0 0 -1 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1938 1809 1680 1527 1375 1063 740 452 266 291 486 577 748 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.6 139.8 141.2 142.6 145.5 148.6 151.7 154.6 157.4 160.1 162.8 165.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 10 14 17 8 7 9 19 29 36 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -16. -23. -31. -39. -45. -49. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -27. -30. -39. -43. -45. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.3 137.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 766.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX