* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 102 97 91 85 82 78 77 72 70 72 71 V (KT) LAND 110 106 102 97 91 85 82 78 77 72 70 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 101 96 92 87 86 86 85 82 81 83 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 9 12 6 7 0 3 1 3 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 2 2 4 1 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 316 346 18 20 22 55 21 70 187 151 38 41 318 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 27.0 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 133 135 130 134 132 129 134 134 135 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 50 50 53 53 54 49 45 41 41 39 39 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 20 20 21 20 22 20 19 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 43 44 35 43 35 20 42 43 59 61 65 200 MB DIV -20 -21 -10 -17 -8 -1 9 41 -4 15 -17 -6 7 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 -6 -1 -1 1 -6 0 0 LAND (KM) 2050 1933 1815 1669 1523 1219 898 592 344 218 353 521 634 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 136.3 137.4 138.5 139.9 141.2 144.0 147.0 150.1 153.2 156.1 158.5 161.1 163.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 9 8 9 14 10 6 9 18 21 32 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -27. -35. -40. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. -2. 0. -3. -4. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -28. -32. -33. -38. -40. -38. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.3 136.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 723.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX