* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 104 101 91 85 82 79 75 74 68 70 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 104 101 91 85 82 79 75 74 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 108 102 97 91 88 88 88 85 81 79 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 9 6 4 4 1 1 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -5 -3 0 2 3 7 3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 306 320 337 40 29 62 62 62 127 88 143 21 33 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.1 26.5 26.9 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 138 135 134 136 131 135 129 131 134 135 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.4 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 51 50 55 54 51 47 42 41 38 39 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 21 20 19 20 20 19 19 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 45 55 44 41 42 30 36 46 50 49 51 200 MB DIV 7 -9 -14 0 -13 -3 -1 1 25 -5 -9 -33 2 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 0 4 0 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 2163 2046 1931 1791 1652 1367 1033 715 453 252 270 477 587 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.3 137.4 138.7 140.0 142.6 145.8 149.0 151.9 154.7 157.2 160.0 162.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 16 15 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 16 15 10 9 13 15 4 3 6 22 28 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -15. -23. -31. -39. -45. -49. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -14. -24. -30. -33. -36. -40. -41. -47. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.3 135.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 736.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX