* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 103 100 95 88 83 77 74 70 68 69 V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 103 100 95 88 83 77 74 70 68 69 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 105 101 97 90 87 84 84 82 78 76 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 9 4 7 6 2 3 2 1 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 1 0 -3 0 0 0 5 3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 350 302 304 340 19 41 87 6 353 217 57 26 60 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.1 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.9 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 136 135 136 132 135 131 129 134 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 52 54 55 52 48 43 41 41 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 20 21 20 19 19 19 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 40 50 48 51 52 42 44 37 19 29 43 44 52 200 MB DIV 13 -1 -9 -18 -8 -5 24 1 1 -16 5 -7 4 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -5 -3 1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2265 2154 2043 1922 1801 1513 1200 884 589 359 235 369 548 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 134.2 135.3 136.3 137.5 138.6 141.3 144.2 147.2 150.2 153.1 155.9 158.6 161.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 9 16 15 10 11 14 5 3 6 12 21 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -27. -35. -40. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -7. -10. -15. -22. -27. -33. -36. -40. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.3 134.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 696.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX