* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 108 106 102 95 89 84 78 76 76 71 70 V (KT) LAND 110 110 108 106 102 95 89 84 78 76 76 71 70 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 105 101 98 92 88 86 85 84 81 79 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 5 7 7 10 5 4 4 2 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 1 -7 -2 0 2 5 6 7 -2 SHEAR DIR 348 22 301 335 343 43 72 90 19 89 72 324 38 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.2 26.9 27.1 26.5 26.8 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 135 139 136 134 136 130 133 128 131 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 57 54 52 50 50 53 51 47 41 39 39 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 19 20 19 20 20 19 19 20 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 53 50 50 51 42 49 27 26 36 37 38 200 MB DIV 27 22 0 -16 -15 -23 22 16 -17 -24 -14 -12 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -7 0 1 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 2371 2262 2152 2029 1907 1642 1351 1043 727 459 271 279 472 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.3 135.3 136.5 137.6 140.1 142.8 145.7 148.8 151.7 154.5 157.2 159.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 9 17 15 9 13 16 4 3 6 20 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -27. -34. -40. -44. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -21. -26. -32. -34. -34. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.2 133.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 708.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 4.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 23 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX