* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 105 103 100 93 88 83 78 74 73 73 69 V (KT) LAND 105 106 105 103 100 93 88 83 78 74 73 73 69 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 101 97 94 88 84 84 83 82 81 79 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 2 3 6 5 7 10 3 7 4 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 2 4 2 7 3 0 SHEAR DIR 328 349 297 293 326 1 35 71 59 45 110 57 29 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 132 134 137 135 136 132 135 132 130 135 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 55 51 51 53 51 50 46 40 41 40 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 20 20 22 22 21 20 21 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 23 38 49 62 53 56 49 50 42 20 35 30 43 200 MB DIV 33 23 8 -9 -19 -9 7 28 -8 -6 0 0 -22 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 -4 -6 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 2338 2370 2265 2147 2029 1781 1489 1190 888 605 389 247 396 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.7 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 132.2 133.2 134.2 135.3 136.4 138.8 141.5 144.3 147.2 150.1 152.9 155.9 159.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 10 17 10 11 14 5 3 6 12 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -24. -30. -36. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -12. -17. -22. -27. -30. -32. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.2 132.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 653.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 2.8% 2.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 6.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX