* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 109 109 105 98 92 86 83 80 80 76 77 V (KT) LAND 105 108 109 109 105 98 92 86 83 80 80 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 106 103 100 93 88 86 85 85 83 79 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 3 2 5 6 4 9 6 3 4 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -4 0 4 5 9 8 7 SHEAR DIR 308 341 34 192 260 351 38 63 104 11 69 31 63 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.5 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.4 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 131 132 134 140 137 135 135 133 129 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 56 54 52 53 51 47 42 38 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 23 22 23 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 36 44 53 49 54 49 53 29 30 19 19 200 MB DIV 15 20 18 15 3 -10 0 32 8 -6 4 -11 0 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -3 0 0 -4 -2 -6 0 -2 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2252 2339 2347 2246 2146 1904 1630 1340 1033 722 429 273 305 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.7 16.6 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.3 133.4 134.4 135.4 137.7 140.3 143.0 145.8 148.8 152.0 154.7 157.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 12 13 13 14 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 5 5 9 13 10 9 16 5 5 10 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -23. -30. -35. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 8. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 0. -7. -13. -19. -22. -25. -25. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.3 131.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 611.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 4.9% 4.5% 3.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 7.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 49.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX