* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 106 106 104 97 92 89 85 81 80 80 77 V (KT) LAND 100 104 106 106 104 97 92 89 85 81 80 80 77 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 106 104 102 96 93 90 87 87 86 82 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 5 2 6 4 7 9 4 3 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 0 2 6 10 6 SHEAR DIR 38 8 10 37 48 314 33 39 76 85 30 37 55 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 133 132 133 140 139 135 133 135 132 132 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 58 56 53 53 53 50 47 41 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 20 20 20 20 21 24 23 22 23 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 7 23 22 33 43 57 56 56 53 36 28 29 25 200 MB DIV 14 4 1 -2 13 -14 -3 27 23 -9 1 -6 6 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2192 2272 2354 2346 2238 2023 1762 1487 1204 908 613 365 226 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.4 132.4 133.5 134.5 136.6 139.1 141.6 144.2 147.0 150.0 153.0 156.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 7 5 5 14 10 9 11 8 4 8 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 7. 7. 6. 7. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 4. -3. -8. -11. -15. -19. -20. -20. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.2 130.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 560.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 5.9% 4.7% 3.8% 2.3% 1.5% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 8.1% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 86.0% 28.0% 15.0% 13.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX