* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 93 92 89 84 80 80 79 75 74 75 V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 93 92 89 84 80 80 79 75 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 91 90 89 87 84 81 78 76 74 73 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 2 4 2 3 8 4 7 4 3 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 1 -2 0 -2 1 1 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 21 55 41 25 29 296 343 350 51 114 326 328 25 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 133 133 134 140 137 135 134 132 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 60 56 53 54 52 51 48 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 20 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 19 24 30 50 46 50 44 38 16 22 22 200 MB DIV 16 26 21 16 15 13 -6 -12 26 25 -15 -2 -13 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -7 -5 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 1 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 2126 2196 2268 2350 2365 2139 1918 1656 1371 1078 802 529 325 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.3 131.3 132.3 133.3 135.5 137.6 140.0 142.6 145.3 147.9 150.6 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 7 6 9 13 9 7 19 6 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -19. -22. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -10. -11. -15. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.1 129.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.90 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 486.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.29 -1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 22.3% 17.1% 15.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.9% 4.3% 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 9.5% 7.1% 6.0% 4.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 75.0% 66.0% 39.0% 39.0% 28.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX