* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 76 78 77 75 74 74 76 73 75 78 V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 76 78 77 75 74 74 76 73 75 78 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 75 75 74 75 75 74 72 71 72 73 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 4 5 0 7 4 8 8 2 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 0 -4 0 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 30 17 31 41 25 325 307 332 18 46 316 18 29 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 27.2 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 132 133 133 140 139 136 133 137 132 128 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 59 58 55 55 56 56 51 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 18 20 20 21 21 21 23 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 -2 21 19 33 40 41 38 30 24 13 12 200 MB DIV 33 21 27 9 8 33 11 0 -4 8 -25 0 2 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -8 -8 -7 0 0 0 -6 -3 0 -3 3 LAND (KM) 2055 2141 2230 2307 2386 2214 2010 1776 1526 1232 923 664 460 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.5 130.6 131.7 132.7 134.8 136.8 139.0 141.3 144.0 147.0 149.5 151.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 14 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 6 6 7 6 13 10 9 10 8 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 6. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -7. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.1 128.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 -1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 18.7% 12.5% 11.3% 8.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.2% 4.6% 4.0% 2.9% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 12.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX