* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 90 90 89 88 85 83 82 83 84 81 83 V (KT) LAND 90 89 90 90 89 88 85 83 82 83 84 81 83 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 89 87 85 84 84 83 81 79 77 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 7 3 4 3 7 6 9 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -3 0 0 1 1 0 6 SHEAR DIR 66 39 29 40 19 22 289 328 4 31 84 342 24 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.8 27.2 27.5 28.0 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 135 133 132 136 139 145 137 136 136 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 61 61 59 58 53 56 57 54 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -3 2 2 1 20 24 48 41 45 30 28 1 -1 200 MB DIV 37 26 16 26 31 0 21 11 -6 -2 -5 -10 5 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -10 -7 -6 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1978 2074 2156 2234 2314 2313 2089 1873 1630 1372 1072 794 542 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 127.3 128.5 129.6 130.7 131.7 133.9 136.1 138.2 140.6 143.0 145.7 148.2 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 12 7 6 6 4 10 13 14 13 17 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -9. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.0 127.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.29 -1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 19.7% 14.0% 12.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.9% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.6% 5.2% 4.6% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX