* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/03/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 100 100 99 97 93 88 85 81 81 77 76 V (KT) LAND 95 98 100 100 99 97 93 88 85 81 81 77 76 V (KT) LGEM 95 100 103 102 101 97 93 90 85 82 79 77 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 7 6 5 4 2 5 5 6 11 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 59 64 63 31 28 9 36 298 340 349 70 185 57 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.3 28.2 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 135 133 134 137 147 135 136 137 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 61 62 61 59 53 51 48 49 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 16 18 18 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 8 10 5 32 31 49 46 47 47 30 24 200 MB DIV 57 23 4 0 10 2 21 8 -8 -10 -26 -4 3 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 1888 1987 2084 2167 2253 2399 2174 1936 1688 1425 1140 880 653 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.3 127.5 128.6 129.7 130.8 133.0 135.3 137.7 140.1 142.6 145.2 147.7 150.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 11 7 6 6 7 12 13 13 17 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -10. -14. -14. -17. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.1 126.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.60 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.27 -1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 21.6% 16.8% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 5.2% 4.2% 3.1% 4.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.9% 9.3% 7.0% 6.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 21.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/03/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX