* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 99 100 100 98 93 86 82 75 77 74 70 V (KT) LAND 90 97 99 100 100 98 93 86 82 75 77 74 70 V (KT) LGEM 90 99 102 102 102 99 96 91 85 79 77 76 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 6 4 3 6 6 8 5 7 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 1 6 SHEAR DIR 52 60 67 63 40 21 4 255 312 308 38 124 129 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.9 27.2 27.9 27.1 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 134 135 133 136 144 136 138 136 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -51.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 61 61 62 60 55 50 48 53 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 16 17 20 21 21 22 21 25 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -7 2 9 10 9 27 26 43 42 52 50 50 39 200 MB DIV 48 55 19 0 0 17 8 22 -11 -2 -7 -22 1 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -6 -7 -6 -3 -2 -3 -6 -3 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1800 1889 1980 2072 2155 2338 2276 2040 1795 1537 1294 1052 814 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.4 127.5 128.6 129.7 132.0 134.3 136.7 139.2 141.8 144.2 146.6 149.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 18 11 7 7 4 11 11 15 11 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 11. 8. 5. 2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 8. 6. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 3. -4. -8. -15. -13. -16. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.1 125.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.29 -1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.2% 27.9% 21.6% 18.8% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.8% 15.6% 13.6% 11.5% 14.3% 5.6% 4.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 4.8% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.3% 15.1% 11.8% 10.1% 9.4% 1.9% 1.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX