* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 86 88 89 87 85 82 80 80 78 78 80 V (KT) LAND 75 82 86 88 89 87 85 82 80 80 78 78 80 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 88 90 90 89 87 86 87 86 83 80 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 9 6 4 5 4 8 8 9 9 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 2 0 0 8 SHEAR DIR 49 56 62 64 41 25 7 360 309 318 351 45 351 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.1 28.2 27.1 27.1 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 140 137 133 131 132 135 147 136 136 141 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 60 61 60 58 55 52 53 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 16 16 16 18 18 20 23 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -6 3 11 9 5 24 26 39 33 33 34 25 200 MB DIV 39 50 48 16 0 11 22 21 13 13 16 -3 -2 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1700 1777 1859 1959 2051 2229 2371 2143 1917 1669 1406 1160 928 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.2 126.3 127.5 128.6 130.9 133.2 135.5 137.8 140.3 142.9 145.4 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 26 26 19 10 5 5 8 13 14 12 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 11. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 13. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. 5. 3. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.2 124.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.39 -1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 31.2% 23.2% 19.8% 14.5% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 19.2% 16.2% 12.4% 13.6% 8.1% 6.4% 1.7% Bayesian: 8.4% 6.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.5% 18.9% 13.6% 10.9% 9.4% 9.2% 2.1% 0.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX