* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 70 73 73 76 76 76 75 77 78 78 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 70 73 73 76 76 76 75 77 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 70 72 74 76 79 82 83 83 82 80 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 13 11 10 5 6 7 10 7 7 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -2 -2 -4 -4 0 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 53 50 56 63 51 29 340 345 297 318 325 357 19 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.2 27.0 27.4 26.8 27.2 26.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 136 134 132 137 135 139 132 136 132 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 60 61 59 60 58 57 52 53 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 15 18 20 21 22 23 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 -5 2 12 9 30 27 49 40 37 30 24 200 MB DIV 49 46 39 43 31 24 39 7 22 3 8 -11 14 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -8 -8 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1604 1681 1762 1850 1943 2107 2308 2238 2014 1786 1566 1337 1127 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.5 13.7 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 123.9 125.0 126.2 127.3 129.6 132.1 134.5 136.8 139.2 141.5 143.8 145.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 25 28 23 6 5 4 13 12 16 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 13. 13. 16. 16. 16. 15. 17. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.2 122.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 -2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 27.7% 20.5% 17.8% 12.4% 18.0% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 8.6% 5.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.2% 2.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 13.1% 8.7% 7.0% 5.2% 6.7% 6.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 8.0% 21.0% 15.0% 13.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX