* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 62 63 68 73 76 77 76 73 77 78 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 62 63 68 73 76 77 76 73 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 60 62 66 73 79 82 83 80 81 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 14 13 8 7 7 6 13 10 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 -4 -3 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 49 52 49 64 65 42 29 352 353 330 338 354 31 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.2 26.6 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.1 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 137 134 136 130 137 134 136 140 135 133 135 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 61 61 61 60 59 56 53 58 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 15 17 20 22 22 21 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -1 -5 -6 1 14 14 36 37 45 38 32 20 200 MB DIV 57 58 47 34 29 29 58 15 8 13 40 28 19 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -7 -6 -3 -3 -1 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1562 1620 1684 1765 1851 2035 2213 2358 2116 1886 1678 1476 1272 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.6 13.4 13.4 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.8 123.9 125.1 126.2 128.5 130.9 133.3 135.8 138.2 140.4 142.5 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 16 25 28 13 5 4 10 11 14 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 7. 10. 12. 10. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 26. 23. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 121.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.56 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 22.4% 21.9% 15.1% 10.2% 18.6% 17.6% 8.1% Logistic: 4.5% 9.9% 4.5% 2.7% 2.2% 2.7% 5.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 12.6% 9.1% 6.0% 4.3% 7.2% 7.7% 3.7% DTOPS: 76.0% 29.0% 20.0% 15.0% 8.0% 6.0% 11.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX