* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 55 59 64 67 69 72 73 72 71 71 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 55 59 64 67 69 72 73 72 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 55 57 62 66 72 78 80 79 77 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 17 15 14 10 5 7 7 15 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -2 -6 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 51 54 57 53 58 62 43 12 3 308 321 327 359 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.3 27.0 27.4 27.0 27.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 140 137 134 134 133 138 135 138 134 135 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 59 59 59 58 58 57 56 53 57 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 20 21 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -5 2 -4 -8 14 13 26 30 52 36 40 32 200 MB DIV 45 71 66 46 44 13 41 42 -3 1 -14 15 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -8 -9 -3 -3 -5 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1507 1553 1604 1681 1762 1950 2131 2322 2238 2014 1811 1629 1460 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.4 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 122.7 123.9 125.0 127.3 129.6 132.0 134.5 136.8 139.0 140.9 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 15 25 23 7 6 4 13 11 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 14. 19. 22. 24. 27. 28. 27. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.8 120.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.59 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 20.9% 20.6% 14.1% 9.2% 16.8% 17.3% 8.6% Logistic: 3.9% 8.4% 3.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 3.8% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 10.5% 8.2% 5.4% 3.6% 6.1% 7.0% 4.1% DTOPS: 39.0% 29.0% 15.0% 8.0% 3.0% 23.0% 9.0% 35.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX