* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 58 64 67 69 70 71 70 67 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 58 64 67 69 70 71 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 53 59 64 70 74 77 75 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 15 10 6 8 5 15 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -3 -3 -6 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 54 53 62 60 62 66 48 33 350 330 305 325 354 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.2 26.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.4 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 142 138 136 136 130 136 134 134 138 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 60 57 57 55 54 55 56 55 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 16 18 19 20 21 23 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -17 -7 3 -2 4 19 19 37 36 46 38 43 200 MB DIV 40 51 67 56 48 43 35 35 9 8 -4 20 28 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -6 -8 -7 -4 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1462 1516 1571 1629 1692 1858 2051 2221 2387 2200 2004 1803 1596 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.0 122.1 123.1 124.1 126.2 128.6 130.9 132.9 134.9 136.9 138.9 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 10 11 17 27 12 5 5 6 13 12 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 119.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.30 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 19.3% 18.7% 12.6% 8.1% 15.7% 17.2% 9.4% Logistic: 3.1% 9.1% 3.7% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.6% 7.5% 4.8% 3.1% 5.5% 6.0% 3.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 42.0% 19.0% 9.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 44.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX