* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 46 51 59 66 71 76 78 79 76 72 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 46 51 59 66 71 76 78 79 76 72 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 50 57 65 73 78 78 74 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 17 11 7 6 7 8 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 0 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 54 54 56 63 54 61 59 11 4 326 308 309 326 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 145 143 139 136 134 132 137 135 135 139 130 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 59 56 54 54 57 59 57 55 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 15 16 18 19 21 23 25 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -13 -11 -2 0 19 11 23 32 41 32 34 200 MB DIV 24 44 53 55 53 58 57 55 34 0 1 -14 1 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -6 -3 -4 -4 -5 -8 -9 -7 -6 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1422 1477 1523 1580 1641 1800 1971 2134 2276 2392 2177 1974 1779 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 120.0 121.1 122.1 123.1 125.2 127.3 129.3 131.2 133.1 135.2 137.2 139.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 13 28 25 8 7 6 8 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 24. 31. 36. 41. 43. 44. 41. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 118.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.34 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 17.7% 17.3% 11.6% 7.2% 14.6% 16.6% 10.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.9% 3.8% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% 1.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 9.6% 7.1% 4.5% 2.9% 5.1% 6.0% 4.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX