* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102018 08/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 50 53 62 70 79 78 80 82 79 75 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 50 53 62 70 79 78 80 82 79 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 53 60 68 73 78 82 78 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 14 13 16 11 6 6 7 8 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 54 56 53 55 58 56 67 36 13 334 286 298 304 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 145 144 144 139 136 133 135 139 136 136 140 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 65 64 61 57 57 59 60 59 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 14 16 20 18 20 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -24 -24 -16 -10 -1 6 17 18 26 36 40 32 200 MB DIV 6 19 48 46 48 48 65 35 39 9 -15 -8 15 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -5 -2 -1 -3 -5 -8 -5 -4 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1380 1414 1455 1514 1564 1701 1856 2037 2203 2353 2324 2109 1906 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.6 121.6 123.8 125.9 128.0 129.9 131.9 133.8 135.9 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 11 19 30 19 8 8 6 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 11. 10. 13. 18. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 18. 27. 35. 44. 43. 45. 47. 44. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 117.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102018 TEN 08/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 21.8% 19.6% 13.1% 8.7% 16.2% 18.1% 10.6% Logistic: 9.0% 24.1% 9.4% 5.8% 2.7% 4.4% 7.1% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 4.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 16.8% 9.8% 6.4% 3.8% 7.0% 8.5% 6.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 TEN 08/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX