* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 36 31 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 36 31 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 47 42 38 34 27 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 9 8 10 9 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 359 8 4 337 298 258 235 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.6 23.1 22.6 22.1 21.6 21.2 21.0 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 100 94 89 84 78 72 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 50 48 41 34 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 -5 -18 -26 -30 -12 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 0 4 17 9 0 3 8 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 -3 -1 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1447 1416 1397 1399 1363 1305 1307 1341 1341 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.3 22.5 23.7 24.8 26.6 28.0 28.6 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.1 127.6 128.2 128.8 130.3 131.7 132.6 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 10 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -27. -31. -35. -42. -44. -45. -49. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.1 126.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 393.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.0% 8.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.0% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##